| CATEGORY A — SHORT SIGNALS (Raw DAYEND-IV) → Insight #12 |
| A1 |
CE:PE Ratio > 10x |
SHORT |
CE/PE asymmetry — institutional call hedging |
● EXEC |
|
Sensex calibrated: 3.0x threshold |
| A2 |
CE Accel Panic > 2000/min |
SHORT |
Rate of CE rise spiking — earliest SHORT signal |
● EXEC |
|
Appears within 5-10 min of move |
| A3 |
PE Unwind (vel > +50/min) |
SHORT |
PE recovering from deep negative — put sellers unwinding |
● EXEC |
|
Contrarian — looks bullish but bearish |
| A4 |
Spot↓ PE↑ Divergence |
SHORT |
Spot falling but PE rising — real selling pressure |
● EXEC |
|
Distinguishes real vs market-maker fake-outs |
| A5 |
PE Raw IV Rising > +1% |
SHORT |
Absolute PE IV increasing — defensive positioning |
● EXEC |
|
Confirms A3 from raw data |
| A6 |
PE Accel > 2000 + Spot↓ |
SHORT |
PE acceleration + spot falling — crash initiation phase |
● EXEC |
|
Gap #2 — earliest crash phase, put buyers initiate before call panic |
| A7 |
CE Ceiling High |
SHORT |
CE_now above ceiling threshold — overbought call side |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of B2. 0% WR (0/20) — BROKEN, disabled |
| A8 |
CE Rise Accel + PE↑ |
SHORT |
CE accelerating + PE rising — short momentum confirm |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of B3. 58% WR (129/221) |
| CATEGORY B — LONG SIGNALS (Raw DAYEND-IV) → Insight #13 |
| B1 |
CE:PE Ratio < 3x |
LONG |
Balanced CE/PE — no one-sided panic |
● EXEC |
|
Sensex calibrated: 2.0x threshold |
| B2 |
PE Floor Deep < -3000 |
LONG |
Heavy theta burn — institutions NOT buying protection |
● EXEC |
|
Confirms fake-down thesis |
| B3 |
PE Decay Accel < -100/min |
LONG |
Put premium collapsing fast — selling exhausting |
● EXEC |
|
Leading — PE decays BEFORE spot bounces |
| B4 |
Spot↑ PE↓ Convergence |
LONG |
Market recovering + puts still losing — double confirm |
● EXEC |
|
Strongest long signal |
| B5 |
CE Unwind (vel < threshold) |
LONG |
CE recovering from deep negative — call sellers unwinding |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of A3. 35.8% WR (24/67) — disabled |
| B6 |
CE Raw IV Rise > +1% |
LONG |
Absolute CE IV rising — bullish positioning |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of A5. 70% WR (865/1235) — top volume earner |
| B7 |
CE Accel Rally + Spot↑ |
LONG |
CE acceleration + spot rising — rally initiation phase |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of A6. No trades — shadow only |
| CATEGORY N — NORMALIZED IV (Floating 5 OTM, BSM-stripped) → Insights #14, #8, #4, #5 |
| N1 |
Norm PE Surging + Down Day |
SHORT |
Real institutional put buying on OTM strikes |
● EXEC |
|
Pure signal — no BSM artifact |
| N2 |
Norm CE Surging + Up Day |
LONG |
Real institutional call buying — momentum conviction |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of N1 |
| N3 |
Norm PE Contained = Fake Down |
LONG |
PE contained on down day = no conviction |
✗ REMOVED |
|
v1.5 — fires too early, PE always contained first hour |
| N4 |
Raw/Norm Divergent = LONG |
LONG |
BSM artifact ≠ go long |
✗ REMOVED |
|
v1.5 — non-sequitur, 78x divergence on crash day |
| N5 |
Norm CE Surging + Down = Reversal |
LONG |
Speculative reversal-catching |
✗ REMOVED |
|
v1.5 — 191 take_long on 1075-pt crash |
| N6 |
Both Sides Surging |
SHORT |
Vol explosion — both CE+PE above surge threshold |
● EXEC |
|
Margin-forced CE covering + real PE buying |
| N7 |
NET% > 10% + PE Dominant |
SHORT |
Adaptive vol expansion — PE driving it = bearish |
● EXEC |
|
10% of baseline, auto-scales with IV regime |
| N8 |
NET% > 10% + CE Dominant |
LONG |
Adaptive vol expansion — CE driving it = bullish |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of N7 |
| N14 |
CE Slow Rise + PE Dominant |
SHORT |
Pre-cascade early warning — CE rising slowly while PE still dominant |
● EXEC |
|
Gap #3 — Stage 1-2 margin cascade detection before N6 fires |
| N15 |
PE Slow Rise + CE Dom |
LONG |
Pre-rally early warning — PE rising slow while CE dominant |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of N14. 41% WR (151/366) — BROKEN, disabled |
| CATEGORY M — MIRROR SIGNALS (Rally-Side Mirrors) → Insight #21 |
| M1 |
PE Acceleration Panic |
LONG |
PE accel > threshold + Spot rising = forced put covering on rally |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of A2 (CE accel panic) |
| M2 |
PE Collapse + CE Surge |
LONG |
PE collapsing + CE surging = short put covering + upside momentum |
● EXEC |
|
Mirror of N6 (both surging on crash) |
| CATEGORY PA — PARITY (Put-Call Parity Deviation) → Bonus signal |
| PA_BULL |
Parity Bullish (calls overpriced) |
LONG |
CE/PE parity deviation — calls expensive vs puts = rally |
● EXEC |
|
78.7% WR (328/417) — top real-signal WR |
| PA_BEAR |
Parity Bearish (puts overpriced) |
SHORT |
PE/CE parity deviation — puts expensive vs calls = decline |
● EXEC |
|
70.5% WR (637/903) — #1 lifetime PnL |
| CATEGORY SG — SKEW GRADIENT → PE vs CE decay-rate skew |
| SG_BULL |
PE Decays Faster than CE |
LONG |
Put side decaying faster = no protection buyers = bullish |
● EXEC |
|
58.1% WR (515/886) — +3,864 pts |
| SG_BEAR |
PE Flat vs CE Decay |
SHORT |
Institutional put holding — puts defended, bearish |
● EXEC |
|
45.8% WR (132/288) — LOSING, review |
| CATEGORY NS — NORM SPREAD (Normalized IV CE-PE spread) → Directional dominance |
| NS_BULL |
Spread < -threshold (CE Dom) |
LONG |
Normalized spread favors CE — call side dominating |
● EXEC |
|
71% WR (264/372) — +4,095 pts |
| NS_BEAR |
Spread > +threshold (PE Dom) |
SHORT |
Normalized spread favors PE — put side dominating |
● EXEC |
|
51.5% WR (134/260) — marginal +213 |
| CATEGORY OI — OPEN INTEREST BURST → Put/call writing flow |
| OI_BULL |
OI Burst Bullish |
LONG |
Put writing at open — bullish conviction flow |
● EXEC |
|
Dormant — no trades lifetime |
| OI_BEAR |
OI Burst Bearish |
SHORT |
Call writing at open — bearish conviction flow |
● EXEC |
|
Dormant — no trades lifetime |
| OI2_BULL |
OI2 Burst Bullish (day-end) |
LONG |
Day-end OI comparison — bullish writing conviction |
● EXEC |
|
Dormant — shadow only |
| OI2_BEAR |
OI2 Burst Bearish (day-end) |
SHORT |
Day-end OI comparison — bearish writing conviction |
● EXEC |
|
Dormant — shadow only |
| CATEGORY AMO — AFTER-MARKET ORDER LEAKAGE → Overnight signal |
| AMO_BULL |
Overnight OI Net Bullish |
LONG |
Pre-9:15 AMO flow shows net bullish positioning |
● EXEC |
|
Dormant — shadow only |
| AMO_BEAR |
Overnight OI Net Bearish |
SHORT |
Pre-9:15 AMO flow shows net bearish positioning |
● EXEC |
|
Dormant — shadow only |
| CATEGORY C — META FILTERS (Gate / Override) → Insight #15 |
| C1 |
Data Maturity |
GATE |
No entries before 09:20 IST or 30+ ticks |
● EXEC |
|
Prevents unstable baseline entries |
| C2 |
Confluence Persistence |
GATE |
Signal must hold 18+ ticks (~3 min) |
● EXEC |
|
Filters fleeting spikes |
| C3 |
SHORT Overrides LONG |
OVERRIDE |
2+ SHORT signals active → suppress ALL longs |
● EXEC |
|
SHORT always wins when conflicting |
| C4 |
Regime Detection |
GATE |
Blocks LONGs in trending_down & SHORTs in trending_up (symmetric) |
● EXEC |
|
Sensex calibrated threshold |
| C5 |
Expiry Day Adjustment |
MODIFIER |
Wider SL on expiry, tighter on non-expiry |
● DISPLAY |
|
Documented, not yet coded |
| C6 |
Norm Spread Gate |
GATE |
Gates entries based on normalized spread magnitude |
● EXEC |
|
Meta filter — 100% WR (56/56), +6,464 pts |
| PRE-VERDICT FILTERS → Insights #2, #3 |
| BSM |
BSM Artifact Filter |
FILTER |
Raw CE "rising" demoted to "neutral" if Norm CE not SURGING |
● EXEC |
|
Prevents Combo #2 on crash days. Mirror for PE. |
| 8-COMBO VERDICT (Raw CE + PE Direction) → Insight #1 |
| #1-#4 |
FDTN Combos (market tanking) |
LONG |
CE▲PE▲=STRONG, CE▲PE▼=TAKE, CE▼PE▲=TOW, CE▼PE▼=SKIP |
● EXEC |
CORE |
Core FDTN filter — 92% WR with PE filter |
| #5-#8 |
FUTN Combos (market rallying) |
SHORT |
PE▲CE▼=STRONG, PE▲CE▲=TOW, PE▼CE▼=TOW, PE▼CE▲=SKIP |
● EXEC |
CORE |
Mirror of FDTN |
| PLANNED / HYPOTHESIS (Not Yet Coded) → Insights #9, #11 |
| N9 |
Margin Call Stabilization (MCS) |
SHORT |
CE spiked then dropped back, but PE still high = next leg loading |
● PLANNED |
|
Insight #9 — needs threshold calibration |
| MSI |
Margin Shock Index (N10) |
PREDICTIVE |
First norm CE/PE spike → MSI% → expected move pts + regime + direction (SHORT/LONG) |
● EXEC |
|
Insight #11, #20 — IV expansion → move estimator |
| — |
Multi-Timeframe Confluence |
MODIFIER |
5-min divergence more reliable than 1-min |
● PLANNED |
|
Needs more data before implementing |
| — |
Expiry Day DTE Handling |
MODIFIER |
Dynamic windows, DTE-based thresholds |
● PLANNED |
|
Discussed but not implemented |